Welcome to another edition of the Fans Week Podcast, also on mediumwaves 1575 KHz for the greater Milan area. From Paris I’m Ami Carter-Wilson.
Not Only Worst App of All Times: Now Duolingo Sinks at the Stock Exchange, No Recovery In Sight
Let’s call it what it is: Duolingo has become the most useless app in Silicon Valley, and at this point even its legendary green mascot can’t mask a fundamentally broken business model. Shares are down roughly 78% from highs above $500, trading under $105 — one of the biggest consumer tech collapses this decade.
Here’s why it doesn’t matter whether you’re trying to learn Spanish or Japanese anymore: Duolingo simply stopped being worth using, and investors are dumping it in droves.
The App Became Pointless
In May 2025, after a wave of user backlash over replacing actual educators with inferior AI models, Duolingo pivoted hard on gamification instead of substance. The result? A hollowed-out language experience that teaches you “I am a cat” but leaves users unable to order dinner in Paris. Trust evaporated — from educators who saw their jobs replaced and students whose learning stalled. That wasn’t just PR damage; it was brand death by thousand cuts.
The Stock Paid the Price
November 6, 2025: Q3 earnings showed Duolingo beat on subscriber count (11.5m paid vs 11.38m expected), but shares cratered 25% — the single biggest one-day decline in company history — because forward guidance missed across the board. Bookings $329–$335m against a $344.3m estimate; adjusted EBITDA ~$78m vs expected $80.5m. Daily active users landed at 50.5m (expected 51.2m), MAUs at 135.3m vs expected 137.4m.
The same pattern repeated in May after Q1 2026 earnings: beat on current results, miss forward guidance again — stock dropped another 14%. It’s a relentless march downward with no floor in sight.
And Now Even Analysts Say It’ll Never Recover
This is the real kill shot. The consensus from analysts covering DUOL now sits below where it was trading before earnings even began — and many have gone public with their view: this stock will never recover. As one analyst put it, “the growth story is decelerating faster than the multiple currently assumes.” At roughly 45x forward sales when better risk-adjusted alternatives exist, Wall Street has collectively decided Duolingo isn’t a comeback — it’s a cautionary tale.
The app is hollow. The guidance is trash. The analysts have written the obituary before the story even ended.
That’s all from today: from Paris, I’m Ami Carter-Wilson.