forecasting Archivi -

Our Equations Predicted FIFA World Cup Winners, a Clear Answer to Readers’ Objections

July 8, 2026 Ami Carter-Wilson

Welcome to another edition of the Pressbeat Podcast, also on mediumwaves 1575 kHz. From Paris I’m Ami Carter-Wilson. Three emails landed in my inbox this morning from “experts” who clearly…

Tech

Bayes’ Theorem: From Cheating Wives to Stock Prices

June 5, 2026 Ami Carter-Wilson

From cheating wives to SpaceX IPO prices, Bayes' theorem is how rational people update beliefs in the face of new evidence. Here's the intuition, the math, and the real-world application.

Tag: forecasting

Our Equations Predicted FIFA World Cup Winners, a Clear Answer to Readers’ Objections

Bayes’ Theorem: From Cheating Wives to Stock Prices